First off, let’s be clear about this so called recovery every talking head in the media keeps talking about – it’s not your parents or grandparents recovery. It might be your great-grandparents recovery though! No economic downturn has had such a damaging effect on American Home ownership since the 1930’s and that effect is not going to go away anytime soon. This has been different from the 1930’s in that in the 1930’s destruction of housing values was pretty much across the board from Rich to Poor; in the current event the damage was primarily at the bottom and middle with homes over $750,000 – $1,000,000 range actually increasing in price during the period of this downturn. Since the end of World War II housing downturns have been generally short lived, in the eighteen to twenty four month range, and primarily inventory adjustment events in this case which began in the third quarter of 2005, the downturn has been primarily a loss of confidence – a much harder basis to recover from in all cases.
Technology is likely to have a significant impact on the structure of the real estate industry in the coming recovery for a number of reasons. Real estate transactions have basically two related and separate parts: the seller side and the buyer side.
The Buyer Side will not be as greatly impacted by change as the seller side due to some factors which are basic to the process. The impact of technology on the buyer’s side will primarily be on the media not on agents and buyers. Most people who have been involved with the real estate industry over the last ten or fifteen years have known that print advertising has declined in efficacy dramatically. Virtually all buyers begin and continue their home searches on line. Brokers and real estate franchises that have been tracking the source of their business for many years have seen that buyer leads that came primarily from print advertising before the internet have seen the number of viable leads from print advertising drop to a very small number of viable buyer leads. The last and most effective use of print advertising has become open house events or very short term immediate demand sort of inventory like rentals. Buyers still however require the assistance of a licensed real estate agent to help them work their way through a real estate transaction and access and view properties as well as negotiate and consummate a real estate transaction. Fees for trained and competent Buyers Agents are likely to remain in the 2.5% to 3.5% of the transaction price that they have been in for many years due to the high time consumption and relatively high failure rate that Buyer Sides of transactions experience.
The Seller’s Side of real estate is likely to see the greatest changes. For a decade or more before the Great Recession large banks had been trying to repeal laws that barred them from providing real estate services such as listing and selling homes for their customers. Now as a result of the unprecedented number of foreclosures in the hands of banks they have become The Dominant Sellers of real estate in the United States. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac established 6% as the official normal commission that they would accept on both short sales and foreclosures and required that commissions be spit equally between buyer’s side and seller’s side in a real estate transaction. Every real estate agent in the United States has been trained that establishment of “Normal” or “Set Fees” has an anti Trust violation since the late 1970’s, however the big banks and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been seen as exempt from these laws. This has resulted in a situation where the majority of listings that sell are listed by Bank/Lenders that own them at a nominal rate of 6% with local real estate agents and agencies but using a conduit of third party companies, that collect hefty referral fees on their listings, leave the selling agencies to work with 1.5% to 2% of the actual sales price rather than the 3% to 4% that they have historically have had to work with since the end of World War II. These agents and agencies have been able to do this because of the downward changes in their cost structure do to the changes in technology.
It is unlikely that as non-institutional home sellers are able to re-enter the home selling market as prices stabilize, and even rise in the foreseeable future, that the advantage to both consumers and Realtors of lower fees on the listings side of real estate transactions will be lost, which have been made possible by the reduced operating costs possible for Realtors due to the changes in technology.
By Dick Thackston CRB, ABR, ABRM, Broker NH, MA & VT
banks, commission, economic downturn, economic recovery, Fannie Mae, fees, foreclosure, Freddie Mac, operating costs, real estate, REALTORs, REO, short sale, technology
On July 1, 1973 the Current Use Law became effective in New Hampshire. The Current Use law was designed to keep New Hampshire’s rural character in tact while allowing owner’s to use the land quoting from the preamble to the law itself: “It is hereby declared to be in the public interest to encourage preservation of open space, thus providing a healthful and attractive outdoor environment for work and recreation of the state’s citizen’s, maintaining the character of the state’s landscape, and conserving the land, water, forest, agricultural and wildlife resources.”
The effect of the Current Use law has been to provide a lower tax rate on larger tracts of land so that property owners would not be forced to subdivide and sell off their property in order to cope with large property tax bills. By keeping land in an undeveloped condition family farms have been preserved as well as woodlands, wet lands and other tracts that might well have been lost over the last thirty-nine years.
Over half on the land in New Hampshireis enrolled in the Current Use program and it has been the foundation of the State of New Hampshireprivate property based land conservation program.
The following are characteristics of the State of New Hampshire’s Current Use Program:
Generally speaking a parcel must be of at least ten acres, exceptions to this are wetlands of any size, tree farms of any size and parcels of less than ten acres that produce more than $2,500 in agricultural products. Open undeveloped land that is less than ten acres as well as any area covered by buildings does not qualify for Current Use.
If an owner acquires abutting parcels of less than ten acres the additional parcels can be added and would qualify for Current Use or if an owner has a number of abutting parcels of less than ten acres each but the entire contiguous amount owned is ten or more acres then the property is eligible for Current Use.
What is a contiguous parcel? Contiguous parcels under the Current Use Law are defined by the NHSPACE.org website as “more than one parcel of land, which is connected, even if a highway, rail bed, river or water body divides it. This means land that touches any of your property boundaries, or is across the road or on the other side of a pond, stream or river, on both sides of railroad tracks, or across a political boundary.”
If a property owner enrolls his property in Current Use it does not mean his land is now “Open to the Public”. When a property owner enrolls his property in Current Use it is still private property – remember the focus of this law has been keeping New Hampshirelarge undeveloped tracts in private hands – the property owner still has the right to determine how his property will be used just as he would if it were not in Current Use.
For more details on New Hampshire’s Current Use Law visit NHSPACE.org
By Dick Thackston CRB, ABR, ABRM
Broker NH, MA & VT
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CORONA, Calif., March 12, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ — PartnerFirst is pleased to announce the renewal of its contract with ServiceLink as its nationwide short sale agent network. Through this alliance, now entering its third year, thousands of distressed homeowners can use PartnerFirst agents to resolve their mortgage problems.
PartnerFirst powers the ServiceLink Short Sale Agent Network which connects distressed homeowners with qualified real estate professionals. Through its education platform, including the Pre-foreclosure Specialist Certification (PSC), PartnerFirst educates agents to help distressed homeowners.
Regarding the ongoing alliance with PartnerFirst, Leo Esposito, ServiceLink’s Senior Vice President of Loss Mitigation and Asset Disposition, said, “ServiceLink is pleased with the agent education services and the quality of agents provided by PartnerFirst to power the ServiceLink Short Sale Agent Network. This marks the third year that the two firms will be working together to achieve solutions for the nation’s housing crisis.”
ServiceLink, the national lender platform of Fidelity National Financial, has managed over $10 billion in short sale transactions, working with five of the nation’s top ten lenders. With its experience in working with lenders, investors, mortgage insurers, and junior lien holders, ServiceLink has the flexibility to provide efficient solutions and expeditious closings.
The short sale alternative preserves neighborhood values, minimizes loan loss severities for investors, and provides a dignified resolution for distressed borrowers.
For more information, or to sign up as a ServiceLink short sale agent, visit: http://www.servicelinkfnf.com/downloads/ShortSaleAgentPackage.pdf .
SOURCE PartnerFirst
asset disposition, distressed home owners, Financial, foreclosure, home sales, housing market, Lost Mitigation, Market, Mortgage, PartnerFirst, preforeclosure, real estate, realtor, REALTORs, recession, REO, ServiceLink, short sale
By Dick Thackston
2012 is likely to be defined, in the real estate world, by three “E’s”: Expectations, Employment and Europe/Economy. No matter what your political belief system is, no matter how much or how little money you have, these three factors will permeate American life and the economy more than any others in the next eleven and a half months.
Expectations: In the world of sales there is an old truism, “To live with the classes sell to the masses!” those will be the watch words for real estate this year. 2012’s real estate will almost certainly only be about first time buyers and large volumes of REO properties being sold to investors. Both first time buyers and investors have some striking similarities: both groups feel they are buying at the bottom of the market and both groups have an expectation of housing prices increasing over the next three to five years and both groups have an expectation of rents remaining and going higher. (Personally, I agree with both groups.) First time buyers not only have the family formation/nesting instinct driving them into purchasing, but they have the ever increasing cost of renting versus home ownership. Most first time home buyers are renters now and are looking at homes that will have monthly mortgage payments 15-20% below their current rent. Landlords/Investors are looking at the exact same equation from the other side and seeing that almost anything they buy now will have positive cash flow of at least 10% and often up to 20%. The group that is melting away at this time is the investors looking to buy, fix and flip, the risks are too great of carrying a vacant property or over improving and taking a hit in what is in fact a flat market, and of course move-up buyer’s remain effectively locked out of the market for the foreseeable future. Until move up buyers can sell and move there is likely to be no updraft in the real estate market, but when it does begin it will be huge.
Employment: In New Hampshirefor sure, the Northeast in general and for the nation probably, employment getting better.New Hampshire has experienced job creation. Not dramatic but some. GivenNew Hampshire’s favorable tax and business environment it’s not really surprising that it would be one of the first parts of the country to recover. New England more generally seems to be getting better although not at the same rate as New Hampshireand the nation, well let’s face it would be hard to screw things up much more – which is a perverse kind of improvement actually. So as workers become more secure in their outlook on employment, they become more confident that they can cope with a mortgage payment and the other cost associated with home ownership, and are feeling much better about leaving their apartments and Mom’s basement. This is having a very noticeable effect on stabilizing the market at the bottom.
Economy: The macro-economic environment remains dicey. I almost headed this section “Europe” as my third “E” but really it’s bigger than all that. The United Sates is no longer insulated from the rest of the world economically. I doubt that this was ever really true, but we felt it was true and we certainly acted as if it was true. The United States remains the world’s largest economy however it remains subject to outside shocks: Tsunami & nuclear disaster in Japan, economic slowdown in China and most dramatically European debit crisis – country by country bad news out of Europe send shocks through our financial system and impacts our banking sector. The largest of these in public perception is Europe which is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon and will continue to drag on the world economy. China seems to have better managed its financial affairs – easier in a totalitarian state – and seems likely to have a softer economic landing than Europe.
What’s the take away from all this? Housing is stabilizing now; sales volume is likely to increase significantly; good deals from a buyer’s perspective are likely to remain the norm for the next eight to twelve months; no real appreciation in real estate as an asset class is likely and value added efforts for renovations will remain high risk till after the end of 2012.
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Keene - R.H. Thackston & Company REALTORS with offices in Keene, Bellows Falls and Winchester announced the following personnel updates.
Dick Thackston, the company’s principal broker, received special recognition from the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS Honor Society. Earlier this year Thackston was made a lifetime member of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS Honor Society. Every year the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS Honor Society recognizes the REALTORS within individual local REALTOR Boards for their outstanding participation in both civic and REALTOR affairs by using a points system for the various activities that individual members participates in over the course of a year. Thackston was recognized by the Honor Society as the highest number of points earned for any member of the New Hampshire Commercial Investment Board of REALTORS, (NHCIBOR) were he is a primary member. Thackston has been a member of NHCIBOR for several years; this is his first year as NHCIBOR’s high point winner for the Honor Society. Thackston is also a member of the Monadnock Region Board of REALTORS were he has also been recognized for earning the highest points in the past. Thackston will be serving as Treasurer of the Monadnock Board of REALTORS in 2012 and is a member of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors, the National Association of REALTORS, National Council of Residential Brokers and Real Estate Buyer’s Agents Council. Thackston is an accredited real estate instructor by the New Hampshire Real Estate Commission and a licensed real estate broker in New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Vermont.
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By Dick Thackston CRB, ABRM, ABR
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has begun sending out letters to borrowers who have faced foreclosure since 2009. It is estimated that approximately four million borrowers foreclosures may have been mishandled between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2010. Federal regulators and most of the nation’s largest home mortgage servicers announced earlier this week.
Cases will be reviewed by Federal Regulators as a result of an agreement established in April of this year in which the nation’s fourteen top mortgage servicers agreed with regulators to hire independent consultants to evaluate foreclosure processes and determine if borrowers had experienced financial injury as a result of errors or abuses by servicers. It will be up to the independent consultants to evaluate cases and determine compensation if any due to borrowers.
The Comptroller of the Currency as well as the Federal Reserve will be sending mails between now and the end of the year to notify potential victims of their rights. A mass media campaign is planned as well to direct borrowers to the website www.IndependentForeclosureReview.com or the toll free number 888.952.9105. All requests for review must be submitted by April 30, 2012.
The mortgage servicers and the government agreed that the servicers would pay all the expenses associated of setting up the program. Under government supervision they have hired eight independent consultants that have designed the program to be at no cost to the borrowers. The consultants have set up the website and call center noted above. The program is designed to encourage borrowers from all lenders to use one portal and there is uniform branding and product design to be clearer in the public mind than a number of different sites would be to the public.
There are several basic patterns that the consultants will be looking at to determine wrongdoing and these include miscalculation of fees, a foreclosure that happened while a borrower was under bankruptcy court protection and the most common one in my experience a foreclosure that was done while a borrower was waiting for a response on a loan modification.
This program is a direct result of last year’s robo signing scandal and the investigations that followed. About a year ago it came to public light that many mortgage servicers were cutting corners on due process when foreclosing on properties and either not properly executing documents or simply faking documents to expedite the large number of foreclosures they had on their hands.
This program is a good solution to an unfortunate situation. Objectively, most of these borrowers were in fact behind and many if not most were ready and willingly left their properties to begin over, however that does justify short cutting the legal protection of property rights built into our system of property ownership over the last thousand years from Common Law to Current Law.
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By Dick Thackston CRB, ABRM, ABR
The actual answer to the question in our title is very little.
From the street level- were you and I both are as buyers, sellers and REALTORS – mostly what it tells us is it’s not our imagination the people who make up these statistics only give a portion of the story or leave large parts of the story out.
I have absolutely no doubt that Home Sales Dropped 3%! In fact I’m sure of it!
But here’s what I think happened. The majority of sales at this point are in fact bank owned properties and Short Sales. For the last several months a large percentage of REO’s have been tied up either with Title Problems and/or litigation. The stream of buyers in the market while not as large as it once was seems constant at this point. Since early this summer there has been a decline in available REO inventory for these two reasons. Value Conscious Home Buyers have been out looking but have not been able to find satisfactory properties or the properties they have found have been snarled up with Title Problems.
Why, you may ask, did these buyers just not buy regular retail properties on the market from non-REO sources? The simple answer is they are waiting. They are waiting for REO inventory to become available, they know it’s coming and they are VERY PRICE CONCIOUS. The majority of retail home sellers and their agents still have an unrealistic expectation about pricing and many have had their properties on and off the market at the same or very nearly the same price for several years. It’s just not going to happen. Home Buyers in this market have lots of information, most of it good, some of it bad, but it’s more information than any other group of Home Buyers has had in history before making a decision to purchase, and Home Buyers are not betting the market changes anytime soon.
The good news is that as the litigation and Title Problems now seem to be clearing more inventory is coming on the market and lenders have started to embrace the short sale process rather than fight it so Short Sales are becoming more far more viable then they were even a year or so ago. To be sure lenders are not going to leave money on the table or sell for less than current fair market value but the approach they are taking now seems like a good thing for everybody and that doesn’t get picked up in the statistics.
Bottom line is the viability of the inventory is improving and buyers are responding even though we are likely years out from an actual fix in the housing market.
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By Dick Thackston CRB, ABRM, ABR
Short Sale Success Story:
Short sales have become a major part of my companys business.
In 2007 I realized that more and more of the owners I interviewed during listing appointments were helplessly under water on the loan on their home.
During the Savings & Loan crisis of the late 80s and early 90s I first experienced short sales. Back then, it was mostly small business owners who had second business loans against their home and as the economy slowed, their businesses slowed or failed, and the bank came after their houses. This is where I learned to do short sales. Up until then, personally, I had never even imagined not being able to sell a house and not clear the loan balances and I had been in the business over ten years at that point.
So I learned to negotiate with lenders to help them understand Fair Market Value and accept the reality of the situation – not the ideal for anyone, but half a loaf is better than none.
So when I started to see homeowners under water again four years ago I felt it would be important to start trying to negotiate short sales – again. Unfortunately both home owners and lenders were still stubbornly unrealistic about the situation at that time. Many of the homeowners I initially advised to consider a short sale ultimately lost the property singing the “I need, I own, I won’t” chorus regardless of market realities, or they spent valuable months and years following the market down. Needlessly doing needless damage to their credit by loosing their home to foreclosure, most had they followed my initial advice would have in fact walked away from a sales with some money, less than they had expected but some money – far better than a short sale or total loss through foreclosure.
Some of the short sales I initially proposed to banks wound up going to foreclosure as well. Costing the lender $50,000 to $100,000 in equity that could have preserved for their company, however banks had a problem too because many had just done refinances or made new loans they would say something like “we have an appraisal that is only six months old” not recognizing how quickly the market was changing in those days. What a tragedy! What a tragedy for all parties!
So now Short Sales are commonly accepted as better than foreclosure and few, if any, lenders are waiting for the market to recover. The biggest issue with Short Sales remains sellers that are too slow to take action. I got a call today from a seller that is schedule for foreclosure sale in ten days. He turned down a short sale about a year and a half ago and now he wants to try and find a buyer and complete a short sale negotiation in ten days? Not going to happen. I suggested that he simply needs to plan on the foreclosure and arrange to move out of the house. Banks at this point are far more realistic than sellers and far more prone to look realistically upon a short sale and work on it realistically. Bank of America and Citibank have made tremendous improvements in their systems for handling short sales. In both cases they have gotten to be the best in the business to deal with, when a few years ago I really don’t think they allocated any serious resources to the Short Sale process.
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By Dick Thackston
Whether the US Economy is entering or has entered a double dip is a hard call and seems less than clear to most of us. Remember as President Nixon famously said over forty years ago: “Unemployment’s a matter of perspective which mostly depends on whether you’re working or not.”
Happily, New Hampshire and Vermont are among the most economically successful states in the country at this time. New Hampshire gained approximately 12,000 jobs from the peak of unemployment and Vermont has gained 5,700 in the same time frame. To be sure both states still have a net loss since 2008 however both states show that they are making the long crawl back from the bottom. New Hampshire’s economy is outperforming the US economy overall by adding jobs faster which has lead to increasing income and spending and our lower unemployment and is likely to do so in the foreseeable future according to most Economists.
So where’s housing?
Why aren’t prices stable and buyer’s buying at such low interest rates?
House prices have fallen about 20% overall in New Hampshire: more in the poorer areas and on poor quality properties and less in the wealthier areas and better quality properties. The number of homes available for sale in New Hampshirehas ranged from twelve to sixteen months worth of inventory over the last three years and seems to remain in that range.
Why is that?
If homes are selling at some pace why can’t we get ahead and drive the amount of inventory down to a more manageable backlog and generate some appreciation and good news? There are several critical factors: consumer age, nature of inventory, consumer confidence and banking regulation.
Since the year 2000 the populations of New HampshireandVermonthave seen their highest growth rate in the categories ages 55-64 and 65+. This seems to be driven by two major dynamics. The low rate of economic growth means younger families are not as attracted to the region as they might be to other more dynamic regions and the tax climate is very favorable to wealthier households that tend to be older. Older consumers tend to not spend as much in general and tend to not be as mobile in housing. They tend to stay put reducing the velocity of sales in the region.
The inventory of available homes in our region tends to be of poor quality over all – to be sure there are many fine homes in excellent condition available – which generate little or no interest in housing consumers of any demographic. During the housing bubble these homes sold at unreasonable high prices because they might be the only property available to many consumers most of whom might have been better off without the property. Many of these properties have no future and this is the range where we see sales in the region in the < $50,000 range. The prices often reflect lot cost minus the price of removing existing structures. Even at that low price level there is very limited demand and these properties are likely to remain a glut on the market statistically for years not months.
Consumer confidence remains weak. If economic uncertainty is to remain the ruling dynamic for the foreseeable future is it any wonder that household savings is likely to continue increase dynamically? Is it any wonder that large corporations are mimicking households as a rule and holding on to large amounts of cash at a time when lending is not guaranteed to be available to even the most qualified of borrowers?
Banks have positive economic incentives to hold up foreclosures and release them onto the market slowly. The longer banks hold delinquent properties off the market the longer they can put off recognizing losses so they look better to both regulators and investors but more significantly they aren’t forced to compete with themselves and there is an increasing trend among lenders to work out short sales with their delinquent accounts. Most industry analysts in the mortgage banking industry expect a surge in short sales in the next twelve to eighteen months. Shortsales reduce lender losses by so estimates as much as $50,000 per property and is far better from a public relations point of view with the consumer that has is over mortgaged.
So what’s the best plan for the average consumer at this time? For seller’s it’s simple: be realistic about your price; if you’re over mortgaged select a REALTOR with success handling short sales and begin working with your lender early in the process. This is likely to allow you to obtain the best terms from both your lender and the home buying public. For buyer’s it’s more complicated: understand what you really want and can afford; get pre-approved by a lender early in the process – bank owned properties and shortsales won’t normally consider any offer from a buyer that can’t produce a pre-approval from a lender with a contract; and most importantly understand that the really inexpensive properties are mostly trash and will not be financeable – there are no free lunches in housing!
Bellows Falls, buyer, consumer, consumer confidence, Dick Thackston, economist, economy., financing, First Home Buyers, first time buyer, foreclosure, housing market, Keene, lender, Massachusetts, Mortgage, New Hampshire, Peterborough, real estate, realtor, REALTORs, REO, short sale, Unemployment, Vermont, Winchester
By Dick Thackston
Distressed properties are the biggest part of the real estate business today. Of the distressed properties that are on the market and selling now the majority are not bank owned REO properties rather the majority of distressed properties on the market and selling today are “Short Sales”. Short sales are properties where the home owner owes more than the current market value of the home and is attempting to sell the property and have the bank write down the loan balance on the home.
Generally, Short Sales properties are in better condition and are still financeable with normal condition than properties that have gone to foreclosure because the home owner still lives in the home and maintains it as their own. These seller’s generally are looking to maintain their credit and are just people caught in the trap created by a declining real estate market over the last five years and have to move on for one reason or another.
National data services show that 12% of all homes that closed nationwide in the second quarter of 2011 were short sales; that’s up from 10% from 10% for the same period in 2010! Effectively a 20% increase.
The reason for the increase appear to be multifold: it appears that more home owners have come to accept that their home will not increase in value without improvements in the property or the economy that are outside their ability or control and their reason’s for needing to move generally revolve around job and/or family changes as well as just a plan old need to move on.
Another major factor in this phenomenon has been banks & lenders that hold mortgages. Banks & lenders have come around 180 degrees from where they were five years ago. Five years ago very few banks & lenders would even consider a short sale, they like most home owners expected prices to maintain or recoup in a few months, but today they have come to realize increasingly that it is in their best interest to work with troubled home owners to resolve mortgages where the homeowner is upside down on the loan. To be sure this has resulted from pressure from the government in Washington as much as from market forces but overall it is good news and likely to pave the way to a more stable and prosperous housing market in the future but getting the dead weight of over mortgaged homes through the system. As an example Bank of America has announced that it expects to complete around 100,000 short sales in 2011!
The key to a successful short sale experience is consistently an agent who has the background and experience to complete a short sale it is not an easy process even now. It generates many times the paperwork and problems of any other sale. The team at R.H. Thackston & Company has been completing short sales since the Savings & Loan crisis of the early 1990’s and has the experience and knowledge to serve you in managing a distressed property sale. Since the beginning of 2011 we have completed on average 3.5 distressed property sales every month.
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