Well, we all lived through the end of the Mayan Calendar! So, what next?
December has been unseasonably busy. Primarily its been new buyers coming into the market that are just beginning to look not just buyers that have been in the search for sometime wrapping up their searches. This is exciting news! It’s been many years since we’ve seen a genuine uptick in homebuyer traffic this late in the year. This tells me that we likely to have a busy Spring real estate season. There has been much new about “the Fiscal Cliff” but it appears to me that the increasing numbers of people coming through my company’s doors just don’t care and don’t relate to issues like “the Fiscal Cliff”.
The potential Homebuyers that my staff and I are talking to are people that have been waiting for several years to buy at “the right time” and they perceive that opportunity is likely to be passing them by if they wait too much longer. Most Homebuyers we are seeing are expressing their concern about missing a closing window of opportunity of low home prices and low interest rates. Often the challenge, at this point, is not finding a credit worthy Homebuyer but finding a home that is in financeable condition for a reasonable price.
To be sure Bank/Lender Owned REO properties represent a large section of the market probably 25-30% of the home market in Central New England unfortunately a very high percentage of these properties cannot be financed with out obtaining special re-hab financing such as an FHA 203K loan. These properties remain especially attractive to first time homebuyers however, lenders are slow to make these loans and many times first time buyers do not realize the extent of the work needed or they anticipate they can “do it themselves” which is often impractical from a lender’s perspective.
So here’s how the Spring real estate market is likely to sort itself out. Buyer’s will be coming through the door in increasing numbers through the first three months of the year and then volume of buyers is likely to level off and stay constant through mid-June. Houses in good locations, in good condition, in good price points are likely to sell in days and weeks rather than months and years. There will be “clinkers” in all neighborhoods that just won’t sell or have interest because of some flaw that the Home buying public will walk away from either price or condition most likely. Clean houses will sell at a 10% premium over the same house in the same neighborhood and investors and “flippers” will still be an active part of the market buying these properties at significant discounts and returning them to the market in 60-90 days.
The most active price range is likely to be between $145,000 and $170,000 in our area and it very likely that there will almost no homes available in the range from $100,000 to $135,000. There will be junk properties under $100,000 which will be selling basically for lot value but the range just of $100,000 is likely to evaporate quickly as it’s too low for a good house and too high for a junk property. The most active markets, as measured by rate of turnover are likely to be anything in Swanzey, which never has enough inventory, Marlborough or Troy followed by the largest volume of sales in the City of Keene. In Vermont properties in Bellows Falls and Saxton’s River are likely to take off in price as will Brattleboro. In Sullivan County Newport has already seen an explosive 24% increase in housing prices in the last year and Claremont is not far behind. Winchendon and Athol will probably see ten to fifteen percent increases in home prices over the next year.
By Dick Thackston CRB, ABR, ABRM, Broker NH, MA & VT
Athol, Bellows Falls, brattleboro, Claremont, Fiscal Cliff, homebuyers, Keene, real estate, Saxtons River, spring, Swanzey, Winchendon
After what feels like an election cycle that has lasted forever (over eighteen months in New Hampshire) perhaps we can get on with the business of running our lives and business in a stable environment. While I’m not a great fan on what has happened over the last four years in Washington, at least we know where we are and given no great new changes in the economy or in Washington and there are some realities that are pretty apparent.
Clearly, housing has bottomed and there are signs of a kind of stability in residential housing. The majority of sales are Bank/lender owned properties; a record number of which are selling for cash. My own experience is that about thirty percent of sales are cash. I have spoken with other REALTORS in our area a few have reported cash sales as high as forty percent and a few have reported cash sales of around twenty-five percent, but all are in agreement the cash sales represent a huge chunk of the residential business at this time. The drivers here are the truly low interest rates that savers can earn on any cash reserves they may have, the difficulty in obtaining financing generally and the difficulty in obtaining financing specifically on bank/lender owned properties due to the generally poor condition of these properties. The Federal Reserves continued commitment to keeping interest rates low into 2014 means this is likely to remain a major part of real estate sales into the future.
The end of the loan modification programs from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac means that the message is clear to borrowers: if you want to keep your house you must pay the mortgage. These programs were almost criminally maladministered and sent mixed messages to home owners. Many homeowners stopped making their mortgage payments so that they could take advantage of these programs and actually ended up loosing their homes. The disappearance of these programs is likely to stabilize the housing market more than any other single event. More stable housing market = fewer foreclosures = better prices = housing recovery, although it will still take years to work through the backlog of homes in various stages of foreclosure.
The current administration remaining in office in Washington is also probably good news for housing and the average home buyer. It is more likely that the current administration will act to support the concept of a secondary market for home mortgages through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Proposals put out by some of the more conservative supporters of the Republicans in the last election cycle to dismantle Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and to have required huge down payments would have been a greater drag on housing and the economy than any of the various proposed limitations on interest deductions on home mortgages. Any thing that eases housing lending will be good for a recovery in housing.
Banks/lenders have been far more proactive about foreclosing on properties in recent weeks and months. They have been quicker to act on delinquencies and been quicker to act in putting properties on the market than at anytime in the last five years.
The primary focus in housing sales for the foreseeable year or more is likely to be bank/lender owned properties. Until a significant share of the foreclosure back log is burned up through new sales, foreclosures will be the driving force in house prices leaving little or no room for price increases through this and most regions of the country with first timers and investors being the primary source of buyers.
By Dick Thackston CRB, ABR, ABRM
Broker NH, MA & VT
2012 Election, bank, cash, economic crisis, Election, financing, first time buyers, foreclosures, housing market, investors, Keene, lender, loan modification, MA, NH, real estate, REO, VT, Washington
On July 1, 1973 the Current Use Law became effective in New Hampshire. The Current Use law was designed to keep New Hampshire’s rural character in tact while allowing owner’s to use the land quoting from the preamble to the law itself: “It is hereby declared to be in the public interest to encourage preservation of open space, thus providing a healthful and attractive outdoor environment for work and recreation of the state’s citizen’s, maintaining the character of the state’s landscape, and conserving the land, water, forest, agricultural and wildlife resources.”
The effect of the Current Use law has been to provide a lower tax rate on larger tracts of land so that property owners would not be forced to subdivide and sell off their property in order to cope with large property tax bills. By keeping land in an undeveloped condition family farms have been preserved as well as woodlands, wet lands and other tracts that might well have been lost over the last thirty-nine years.
Over half on the land in New Hampshireis enrolled in the Current Use program and it has been the foundation of the State of New Hampshireprivate property based land conservation program.
The following are characteristics of the State of New Hampshire’s Current Use Program:
Generally speaking a parcel must be of at least ten acres, exceptions to this are wetlands of any size, tree farms of any size and parcels of less than ten acres that produce more than $2,500 in agricultural products. Open undeveloped land that is less than ten acres as well as any area covered by buildings does not qualify for Current Use.
If an owner acquires abutting parcels of less than ten acres the additional parcels can be added and would qualify for Current Use or if an owner has a number of abutting parcels of less than ten acres each but the entire contiguous amount owned is ten or more acres then the property is eligible for Current Use.
What is a contiguous parcel? Contiguous parcels under the Current Use Law are defined by the NHSPACE.org website as “more than one parcel of land, which is connected, even if a highway, rail bed, river or water body divides it. This means land that touches any of your property boundaries, or is across the road or on the other side of a pond, stream or river, on both sides of railroad tracks, or across a political boundary.”
If a property owner enrolls his property in Current Use it does not mean his land is now “Open to the Public”. When a property owner enrolls his property in Current Use it is still private property – remember the focus of this law has been keeping New Hampshirelarge undeveloped tracts in private hands – the property owner still has the right to determine how his property will be used just as he would if it were not in Current Use.
For more details on New Hampshire’s Current Use Law visit NHSPACE.org
By Dick Thackston CRB, ABR, ABRM
Broker NH, MA & VT
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By Dick Thackston
2012 is likely to be defined, in the real estate world, by three “E’s”: Expectations, Employment and Europe/Economy. No matter what your political belief system is, no matter how much or how little money you have, these three factors will permeate American life and the economy more than any others in the next eleven and a half months.
Expectations: In the world of sales there is an old truism, “To live with the classes sell to the masses!” those will be the watch words for real estate this year. 2012’s real estate will almost certainly only be about first time buyers and large volumes of REO properties being sold to investors. Both first time buyers and investors have some striking similarities: both groups feel they are buying at the bottom of the market and both groups have an expectation of housing prices increasing over the next three to five years and both groups have an expectation of rents remaining and going higher. (Personally, I agree with both groups.) First time buyers not only have the family formation/nesting instinct driving them into purchasing, but they have the ever increasing cost of renting versus home ownership. Most first time home buyers are renters now and are looking at homes that will have monthly mortgage payments 15-20% below their current rent. Landlords/Investors are looking at the exact same equation from the other side and seeing that almost anything they buy now will have positive cash flow of at least 10% and often up to 20%. The group that is melting away at this time is the investors looking to buy, fix and flip, the risks are too great of carrying a vacant property or over improving and taking a hit in what is in fact a flat market, and of course move-up buyer’s remain effectively locked out of the market for the foreseeable future. Until move up buyers can sell and move there is likely to be no updraft in the real estate market, but when it does begin it will be huge.
Employment: In New Hampshirefor sure, the Northeast in general and for the nation probably, employment getting better.New Hampshire has experienced job creation. Not dramatic but some. GivenNew Hampshire’s favorable tax and business environment it’s not really surprising that it would be one of the first parts of the country to recover. New England more generally seems to be getting better although not at the same rate as New Hampshireand the nation, well let’s face it would be hard to screw things up much more – which is a perverse kind of improvement actually. So as workers become more secure in their outlook on employment, they become more confident that they can cope with a mortgage payment and the other cost associated with home ownership, and are feeling much better about leaving their apartments and Mom’s basement. This is having a very noticeable effect on stabilizing the market at the bottom.
Economy: The macro-economic environment remains dicey. I almost headed this section “Europe” as my third “E” but really it’s bigger than all that. The United Sates is no longer insulated from the rest of the world economically. I doubt that this was ever really true, but we felt it was true and we certainly acted as if it was true. The United States remains the world’s largest economy however it remains subject to outside shocks: Tsunami & nuclear disaster in Japan, economic slowdown in China and most dramatically European debit crisis – country by country bad news out of Europe send shocks through our financial system and impacts our banking sector. The largest of these in public perception is Europe which is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon and will continue to drag on the world economy. China seems to have better managed its financial affairs – easier in a totalitarian state – and seems likely to have a softer economic landing than Europe.
What’s the take away from all this? Housing is stabilizing now; sales volume is likely to increase significantly; good deals from a buyer’s perspective are likely to remain the norm for the next eight to twelve months; no real appreciation in real estate as an asset class is likely and value added efforts for renovations will remain high risk till after the end of 2012.
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Keene - R.H. Thackston & Company REALTORS with offices in Keene, Bellows Falls and Winchester announced the following personnel updates.
Dick Thackston, the company’s principal broker, received special recognition from the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS Honor Society. Earlier this year Thackston was made a lifetime member of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS Honor Society. Every year the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS Honor Society recognizes the REALTORS within individual local REALTOR Boards for their outstanding participation in both civic and REALTOR affairs by using a points system for the various activities that individual members participates in over the course of a year. Thackston was recognized by the Honor Society as the highest number of points earned for any member of the New Hampshire Commercial Investment Board of REALTORS, (NHCIBOR) were he is a primary member. Thackston has been a member of NHCIBOR for several years; this is his first year as NHCIBOR’s high point winner for the Honor Society. Thackston is also a member of the Monadnock Region Board of REALTORS were he has also been recognized for earning the highest points in the past. Thackston will be serving as Treasurer of the Monadnock Board of REALTORS in 2012 and is a member of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors, the National Association of REALTORS, National Council of Residential Brokers and Real Estate Buyer’s Agents Council. Thackston is an accredited real estate instructor by the New Hampshire Real Estate Commission and a licensed real estate broker in New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Vermont.
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By Dick Thackston CRB, ABRM, ABR
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has begun sending out letters to borrowers who have faced foreclosure since 2009. It is estimated that approximately four million borrowers foreclosures may have been mishandled between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2010. Federal regulators and most of the nation’s largest home mortgage servicers announced earlier this week.
Cases will be reviewed by Federal Regulators as a result of an agreement established in April of this year in which the nation’s fourteen top mortgage servicers agreed with regulators to hire independent consultants to evaluate foreclosure processes and determine if borrowers had experienced financial injury as a result of errors or abuses by servicers. It will be up to the independent consultants to evaluate cases and determine compensation if any due to borrowers.
The Comptroller of the Currency as well as the Federal Reserve will be sending mails between now and the end of the year to notify potential victims of their rights. A mass media campaign is planned as well to direct borrowers to the website www.IndependentForeclosureReview.com or the toll free number 888.952.9105. All requests for review must be submitted by April 30, 2012.
The mortgage servicers and the government agreed that the servicers would pay all the expenses associated of setting up the program. Under government supervision they have hired eight independent consultants that have designed the program to be at no cost to the borrowers. The consultants have set up the website and call center noted above. The program is designed to encourage borrowers from all lenders to use one portal and there is uniform branding and product design to be clearer in the public mind than a number of different sites would be to the public.
There are several basic patterns that the consultants will be looking at to determine wrongdoing and these include miscalculation of fees, a foreclosure that happened while a borrower was under bankruptcy court protection and the most common one in my experience a foreclosure that was done while a borrower was waiting for a response on a loan modification.
This program is a direct result of last year’s robo signing scandal and the investigations that followed. About a year ago it came to public light that many mortgage servicers were cutting corners on due process when foreclosing on properties and either not properly executing documents or simply faking documents to expedite the large number of foreclosures they had on their hands.
This program is a good solution to an unfortunate situation. Objectively, most of these borrowers were in fact behind and many if not most were ready and willingly left their properties to begin over, however that does justify short cutting the legal protection of property rights built into our system of property ownership over the last thousand years from Common Law to Current Law.
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By Dick Thackston CRB, ABRM, ABR
The actual answer to the question in our title is very little.
From the street level- were you and I both are as buyers, sellers and REALTORS – mostly what it tells us is it’s not our imagination the people who make up these statistics only give a portion of the story or leave large parts of the story out.
I have absolutely no doubt that Home Sales Dropped 3%! In fact I’m sure of it!
But here’s what I think happened. The majority of sales at this point are in fact bank owned properties and Short Sales. For the last several months a large percentage of REO’s have been tied up either with Title Problems and/or litigation. The stream of buyers in the market while not as large as it once was seems constant at this point. Since early this summer there has been a decline in available REO inventory for these two reasons. Value Conscious Home Buyers have been out looking but have not been able to find satisfactory properties or the properties they have found have been snarled up with Title Problems.
Why, you may ask, did these buyers just not buy regular retail properties on the market from non-REO sources? The simple answer is they are waiting. They are waiting for REO inventory to become available, they know it’s coming and they are VERY PRICE CONCIOUS. The majority of retail home sellers and their agents still have an unrealistic expectation about pricing and many have had their properties on and off the market at the same or very nearly the same price for several years. It’s just not going to happen. Home Buyers in this market have lots of information, most of it good, some of it bad, but it’s more information than any other group of Home Buyers has had in history before making a decision to purchase, and Home Buyers are not betting the market changes anytime soon.
The good news is that as the litigation and Title Problems now seem to be clearing more inventory is coming on the market and lenders have started to embrace the short sale process rather than fight it so Short Sales are becoming more far more viable then they were even a year or so ago. To be sure lenders are not going to leave money on the table or sell for less than current fair market value but the approach they are taking now seems like a good thing for everybody and that doesn’t get picked up in the statistics.
Bottom line is the viability of the inventory is improving and buyers are responding even though we are likely years out from an actual fix in the housing market.
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By Dick Thackston CRB, ABRM, ABR
Since the down turn started in the third quarter of 2005, (yes that’s right it’s actually been over six years if your benchmark is real estate brokerage), and the economic seizures started happening almost daily after November 2008, I’ve actually had some excellent experiences helping sellers and lenders work out a short sale.
Initially mortgage lenders were less likely to work out a short sale for a number of reasons: they didn’t believe the property was upside down, mortgage insurance would cover their losses if it went to foreclosure and/or they were simply too overwhelmed with the volume of business collapse that they couldn’t function efficiently and make decisions.
In 2007 I began the process of helping people work out a Short Sales on their homes if they were over mortgaged. One of the most successful short sales I’ve done was a house inKeene,New Hampshire. The owner had purchased the home about twenty years before he called me. He had tried selling the home himself and tried a Virtual Real Estate brokerage from outside the area with no local support. All the time he tried this, his home was sinking in value.
Why, one might wonder, if he had owned this home for over twenty years would he owe more than he paid? Well, actually what he had done was borrow money incrementally over the years to put his children through collage and purchase each of them cars when they graduated. He literally used his home as a savings account.
The biggest hurdle in the transaction was the owner, he just couldn’t believe that his home would be worth the loan balances plus and additional ten thousand dollars so that he could start his life over again someplace else. Once I was able to get him to understand that the value just wasn’t there, and he agreed to price the house to the market comparable prices in his neighborhood at the time, we got some OK sales traffic and ultimately an offer. I presented the offer to both the owner and his lender. I obtained the owners detailed financial information and the bank agreed to accept the short sale. Little or no emotion, very rational, and very efficient successful transaction.
The entire transaction from day of listing to day of closing the short sale, including negotiating with lender, was about five months or one hundred fifty days to closing.
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By Dick Thackston CRB, ABRM, ABR
Short Sale Success Story:
Short sales have become a major part of my companys business.
In 2007 I realized that more and more of the owners I interviewed during listing appointments were helplessly under water on the loan on their home.
During the Savings & Loan crisis of the late 80s and early 90s I first experienced short sales. Back then, it was mostly small business owners who had second business loans against their home and as the economy slowed, their businesses slowed or failed, and the bank came after their houses. This is where I learned to do short sales. Up until then, personally, I had never even imagined not being able to sell a house and not clear the loan balances and I had been in the business over ten years at that point.
So I learned to negotiate with lenders to help them understand Fair Market Value and accept the reality of the situation – not the ideal for anyone, but half a loaf is better than none.
So when I started to see homeowners under water again four years ago I felt it would be important to start trying to negotiate short sales – again. Unfortunately both home owners and lenders were still stubbornly unrealistic about the situation at that time. Many of the homeowners I initially advised to consider a short sale ultimately lost the property singing the “I need, I own, I won’t” chorus regardless of market realities, or they spent valuable months and years following the market down. Needlessly doing needless damage to their credit by loosing their home to foreclosure, most had they followed my initial advice would have in fact walked away from a sales with some money, less than they had expected but some money – far better than a short sale or total loss through foreclosure.
Some of the short sales I initially proposed to banks wound up going to foreclosure as well. Costing the lender $50,000 to $100,000 in equity that could have preserved for their company, however banks had a problem too because many had just done refinances or made new loans they would say something like “we have an appraisal that is only six months old” not recognizing how quickly the market was changing in those days. What a tragedy! What a tragedy for all parties!
So now Short Sales are commonly accepted as better than foreclosure and few, if any, lenders are waiting for the market to recover. The biggest issue with Short Sales remains sellers that are too slow to take action. I got a call today from a seller that is schedule for foreclosure sale in ten days. He turned down a short sale about a year and a half ago and now he wants to try and find a buyer and complete a short sale negotiation in ten days? Not going to happen. I suggested that he simply needs to plan on the foreclosure and arrange to move out of the house. Banks at this point are far more realistic than sellers and far more prone to look realistically upon a short sale and work on it realistically. Bank of America and Citibank have made tremendous improvements in their systems for handling short sales. In both cases they have gotten to be the best in the business to deal with, when a few years ago I really don’t think they allocated any serious resources to the Short Sale process.
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The Great Recession that has shaken the American Economy and Housing Market over the last five years has taken many would be home buyers out of the market and loaded the Home Buyer psyche with skepticism however it has not generated an increase in the demand for buyer brokers. In fact if anything the willingness of buyers to contract with Buyer Brokers appears to be in decline and the willingness of agents and agencies to provide buyer brokerage services appears to have declined.
Buyer Brokerage, properly understood by the consumer and properly handled by the Buyer Broker is an excellent program and an excellent service for any home buyer in today’s market.
The top ten things when getting involved in Buyer Brokerage follow:
# 1. Find a Buyer Broker that you feel you can know like and trust. This person is going to need to have both your attention and confidence. Remember you’re not hiring them to be your best friend you’re hiring them to help you make solid business decisions.
# 2. Understand that you are HIRING the Buyer Broker which means you will be responsible for PAYING the Buyer Broker. Most agents will be happy to accept as compensation whatever fee is offered through their local MLS however sometimes listing brokers will not pay a fee or will not pay a reasonable fee and it will be your responsibility to handle this cost. Discuss this in detail when you hire the Buyer Broker.
#3. ONLY HIRE A BUYER BROKER WITH TRAINING IN BUYER BROKERAGE. Lots of agents and agencies will agree to be paid as a buyer broker but very few have actually training in Buyer Brokerage. The top level of training for a Buyer Broker is an Accredited Buyer Representative Manager a designation offered exclusively through the National Association of Realtors, Real Estate Buyer Agent Council.
#4. Have some idea of what you want and were you want to live. It’s the Buyer Broker’s job to help you figure out the best value for you but you need to understand your own needs and wants so the Buyer Broker can help you figure things out.
#5. Listen to the Buyer Broker. Most Buyer Brokers can send you to good service providers: Loan Officer’s, Title Companies, Home Inspectors etc and do so to help you get good service – no other reason, really.
#6. Find out if your chosen Buyer Broker requires a retainer and how that’s handled. Many Buyer Broker’s require a retainer when you contract for services. Most refund that after a successful closing, some do not establish how this item is handled when you sign your contract.
#7. Establish the level of service you expect and the level of service your Buyer Broker is ready willing and able to provide. Some buyer brokers will check zoning, building permits and title issues; some will not work with For Sale by Owner and non-MLS listings be clear about how these issues are handled.
#8. Establish an exit plan. Sometimes relationships just don’t work out or sometimes your situation will just change. Be clear at the beginning of your relationship with the Buyer Broker how things can be ended if you don’t feel the relationship is working out.
#9. Understand the agency laws in your state. Every state has different rules governing the actions and relationships of the real estate agents with the public – no two are exactly the same.
#10. Make sure you know who the boss is. When contracting any licensed professional for services make sure you know who they report to and who regulates Buyer Brokerage in your state. There is NO STATE where Buyer Brokerage is regulated by the REALTORS.
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