Real Estate News & Updates from the Monadnock Region
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After what feels like an election cycle that has lasted forever (over eighteen months in New Hampshire) perhaps we can get on with the business of running our lives and business in a stable environment. While I’m not a great fan on what has happened over the last four years in Washington, at least we know where we are and given no great new changes in the economy or in Washington and there are some realities that are pretty apparent.

Clearly, housing has bottomed and there are signs of a kind of stability in residential housing. The majority of sales are Bank/lender owned properties; a record number of which are selling for cash. My own experience is that about thirty percent of sales are cash. I have spoken with other REALTORS in our area a few have reported cash sales as high as forty percent and a few have reported cash sales of around twenty-five percent, but all are in agreement the cash sales represent a huge chunk of the residential business at  this time. The drivers here are the truly low interest rates that savers can earn on any cash reserves they may have, the difficulty in obtaining financing generally and the difficulty in obtaining financing specifically on bank/lender owned properties due to the generally poor condition of these properties. The Federal Reserves continued commitment to keeping interest rates low into 2014 means this is likely to remain a major part of real estate sales into the future.

The end of the loan modification programs from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac means that the message is clear to borrowers: if you want to keep your house you must pay the mortgage. These programs were almost criminally maladministered and sent mixed messages to home owners. Many homeowners stopped making their mortgage payments so that they could take advantage of these programs and actually ended up loosing their homes. The disappearance of these programs is likely to stabilize the housing market more than any other single event. More stable housing market = fewer foreclosures = better prices = housing recovery, although it will still take years to work through the backlog of homes in various stages of foreclosure.

The current administration remaining in office in Washington is also probably good news for housing and the average home buyer. It is more likely that the current administration will act to support the concept of a secondary market for home mortgages through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Proposals put out by some of the more conservative supporters of the Republicans in the last election cycle to dismantle Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and to have required huge down payments would have been a greater drag on housing and the economy than any of the various proposed limitations on interest deductions on home mortgages. Any thing that eases housing lending will be good for a recovery in housing.

Banks/lenders have been far more proactive about foreclosing on properties in recent weeks and months. They have been quicker to act on delinquencies and been quicker to act in putting properties on the market than at anytime in the last five years.

The primary focus in housing sales for the foreseeable year or more is likely to be bank/lender owned properties. Until a significant share of the foreclosure back log is burned up through new sales, foreclosures will be the driving force in house prices leaving little or no room for price increases through this and most regions of the country with first timers and investors being the primary source of buyers.

 

By Dick Thackston CRB, ABR, ABRM

Broker NH, MA & VT

I see America changing every day when I talk to home buyers. American’s expectations about housing are switching rapidly from the “American Dream” of Mom, Dad, kids and a house in the suburbs, not as much because of the financial decay of the last three years, but rather because the current generation of Home Buyers, the so called “GenY”, has moved away from the highly conformist expectations of their grandparents – the “Baby Boomers” – to a highly diverse, multicultural, multidimensional society.

The Baby Boomers experience, viewed as a cultural event or milestone, has had more impact on American society, real estate and home ownership than any other event in American society since the Civil War. Boomers were raised with these expectations and typically only owned three or four homes in their lives – this is the generation that had mortgage burning parties when they paid off their homes and built a pool.

The Gen X’ers, the children and grandchildren of the Baby Boomers, never fully adopted the lifestyle of their elders. This is the generation that came of age in the boom years of the 80’s and 90’s. This generation used credit cards, car loans and mortgages like no generation before. This is the generation the treated their homes as Piggy Banks and expecting to buy low and sell high on every home they would ever own and they expected to own a lot of them too! Gen X’ers as a group expected to stay in multiple homes for short periods – three to four years max – disposable lifestyles. Their generation is much smaller then the “Baby Boomers” as a group but has had a disproportionate impact on the housing market. While these Gen X’ers have had an immediate short term negative effect on housing and the American Economy as a whole, the effect on real estate will be short term because this is a small generation. The dramatically different “Generation Y”, aka “The Microwave Generation”, influence is already being felt on the real estate market and the economy as a whole.

“Generation Y” is much larger than the Gen X’ers and has a completely different agenda. Financially, socially and educationally, Gen Y is dramatically different than either of the two prior generations of Americans. Gen Y is much more likely to have an IRA or a 401K than either of the earlier generations and at a much earlier stage in life: Baby Boomers expected a pension, Social Security and the equity in their home to carry them through retirement; the Gen X’ers expected to flip houses to infinity and beyond with minimal reserves and limited funding of retirement accounts.

“Generation Y’s” effect on housing will be as dramatic as that of the post World War II baby Boomers or greater. The Y’s are happy to not own a home any time soon if at all. It’s more important to the Y’s to have flexibility and cash. This is a generation that has student loans like no other before but that’s because as a group they view education not as just as important but imperative to their lives. Lifestyle choices such as access to services, an elegant downtown – clubs and shopping – is more important than owning a home. Y’s as a group are looking for housing that meets those criterion rather than a quarter acre lot and a three bedroom house.

Sure, Generation Y’s expect to own homes, but it is not an urgent first order of business as it was for their parent and grandparents. Generation Y’s perspective on real estate ownership is colored by their willingness to rent. (Sixty plus per cent of renters want to own their own home someday according to a recent survey by PulteCorp.) The Y’s interest in savings is reflected in the much higher contribution rates to IRA’s and 401K’s than either of the prior generations combined with their much higher student loans and need for “a lifestyle” that is more cosmopolitan and focused on convenience than the Generations of “Boomers” and “X’s” that came before them.

By Dick Thackston CRB, ABR, ABRM

Broker NH, MA & VT

Prior to 2007-2008 most of the American public and most mortgage lenders believed, and often would state in conversation, “real estate never goes down!” Since that time frame buyers and sellers have gone to the other extreme and now the common wisdom is “real estate will never go back up.”

Well never is a long time. Both perspectives are wrong.

For the last several years we have been pummeled for a seemingly continuous stream of negative events: tidal wave and earthquake in Japan, un-employment over 10%, European Debit crisis looms as Greece nears default on its debt, (The last one just kills me: the entire GDP of Greece in 2010 – $310 Billion +/- – is approximately the same as the State of Maryland in 2010 – $300 Billion +/-. Do we actually believe if the State of Maryland defaulted there would be a worldwide financial crisis?), and each of the events has run a shock wave through people’s emotions which does affect their willingness to make the long term commitment to home ownership. It’s not reality! Fear sells newspapers, magazines and broadcasts. Fear does not ever produce the best results or good decisions.

Truth be told, the down turn in housing started in the third quarter of 2005. In June of 2005 the Fed bumped rates up in order to stimulate “a soft landing in housing” the curves between housing units sold and housing prices began to diverge at that point with house prices continuing to increase for another two years, while units of sales began to decline at an ever increasing rate. By the time the reality hit it was already too late. That being said, let’s look at the sunnier side of the situation. All of this is clearly tracked by something called the Housing Affordability Index published by the National Association of REALTORS.

The Housing Affordability Index has two basic components: average mortgage rates and average house prices which is then compared to the average household income. The higher the number, the easier it is for people to buy homes, and the lower the number, the harder it is for people to own homes. The number is designed to indicate how affordable the median home is to the median income family in the United States. An index of 100 means that the median income household has exactly enough income to afford the median income home; when the index is greater than 100 then the median household has more than they need to purchase the median home and when it’s below 100 then they don’t have enough. (When I started selling homes in Pasadena, Maryland in 1982, the Housing Affordability Index was well below 100 due to very high interest rates, in the 13-15% range). Today due to all the price declines and interest rates being at historic lows, the Housing Affordability Index has soared to a record high number well over 100.

So what’s the point? The point is that a balanced perspective and a positive outlook on life are the key to making good decisions in housing as well as in other areas of ones life. Scientific studies have shown, (See Dr. David Lykken’s work), that your happiness set point is about 50% genetic and the rest is up to you. There can be little or no doubt that the homes that are being purchased today at historically low interest rates and the lowest prices in a decade or more will fuel the American economic powerhouse in a few years – so be positive, keep your perspective and never say “never”.

By Dick Thackston CRB, ABR, ABRM

Broker NH, MA & VT